Shocking Deceleration of Payroll-Tax Growth

That’s the title of an email that I sent out to my Daily Jobs Update subscribers on August 3, 2015. At the time, the Dow stood at 17,598. What happened next? KABOOM! That’s what. It’s been pretty much straight downhill since then with the Dow shedding 1,138 points by the time of this writing. Here is the payroll-tax chart that I sent (click to enlarge):


The chart is made by taking a quarter-over-quarter growth rate of federal withholding-tax collections every day, and then applying a moving-average.

Note that the vertical axis starts at 3.5% instead of zero, so the growth-rate was still positive, though way off the 6% peak in February.

Has the data continued to plunge since I made the chart three weeks ago? Good question; for the answer simply subscribe to The Daily Jobs Update.