Archive for the ‘Withholding Tax Data’ Category

Nailed It – Jobs Up, Market Down

Sunday, March 8th, 2015

On Friday morning (3/8/15) everybody was surprised when the jobs report blew away estimates. Economists were expecting 230,000 new jobs, and the BLS reported +295,000. Before the shock could wear off, people were shocked again as the raging bull market “celebrated” the good news by plunging. The DJIA closed down 279 points.

People were turned every which way but loose, except for a small elite group of investors who were advised of this exact scenario three full days prior by an email sent by your hero (that would be me in case you are confused on the subject).

How did I do it? Well, economists were frightened by rising unemployment-claims, but just because some people get laid off doesn’t mean that other people aren’t getting hired. And the soaring withholding-tax data that I follow at The Daily Jobs Update was rocketing upward. So, the stage was set for a big surprise – a surprise that would shock investors into visions of Janet Yellen taking away their punch bowl.

While I didn’t cure cancer or deliver world peace, one of the aforementioned elite investors described my call as “beautiful” and “masterful.”

The moral of the story is that you should subscribe to The Daily Jobs Update and gain access to this esoteric, and invaluable, real-time economic indicator.

New Withholding-Tax Collection Record

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2015

On Monday, March 2, 2015, the IRS set a new single-day, withholding-tax collection record by raking in $38.02 billion from the paychecks of American workers. Take a look at the Daily Treasury Statement (click to enlarge):


The previous record was set a year ago at $35.5 billion. See my report here. I know this is a record because I have daily data going back to 10/1/1998 in my database at The Daily Jobs Update where you can see charts of this data updated in real time.

So, does this mean that the jobs market is on fire? If you subscribe to DJU, look in your inbox for an email containing my thoughts on how the West Coast port strike, and minimum-wage increases may have affected this data.

Another Tax-Collection Record

Tuesday, March 4th, 2014

A month ago, I reported on a new single-day record for withholding-tax collections, and some people thought that it was just an anomaly. Well guess what? That record has been smashed. The February 4th record was $32.241 billion, and yesterday, March 3rd, the IRS raked in $35.500 billion from the paychecks of American workers. Here is Table IV from today’s release of The Daily Treasury Statement:


A jump in collections such as this is practically impossible without a substantial expansion in payrolls. Despite weakness in recent non-farm payrolls reports, the annual growth rate of withholding-tax collections is actually accelerating. Take a look at the red line on the chart on this page (if you subscribe to my DJU website.)

How much is $35.5 billion? It’s 18 times bigger than Ukraine’s annual defense budget. It’s enough to buy three Ford-class super-carriers, which retail at $11.3 billion (fighter jets not included).

Gerald R. Ford super-carrier.

Gerald R. Ford super-carrier.

Record Tax Receipts – $32.2 Billion in One Day

Tuesday, February 4th, 2014

The IRS has set a new single-day, withholding-tax record by raking in $32.24 billion on Monday, February 3, 2014. Take a look at the Daily Treasury Statement (click to enlarge):

Record Withholding

The previous record of $30.428 billion was set on January 2, 2007, and some of that was likely delayed from December due to the holiday.

What does this mean? It means that there are lots of people working, lots of paychecks being cut, and lots of income for the IRS to withhold. The stock market may be correcting, but the jobs market is going full steam ahead.

Note: I know this is a record because I have daily data going back to 10/1/1998 in my database at The Daily Jobs Update.

Are Tax Reciepts Slowing?

Monday, October 7th, 2013

At the 1:25 mark of the CNBC video below, Art Cashin says:

“…if tax receipts are slowing down, which is the gossip in Washington…”

Mr. Cashin did not present any data, or even state that tax revenue are slowing. He just threw out a rumor clothed in weasel words. And keep in mind that Cashin has been comically bearish for years now.

In any case, withholding-tax revenue is not slowing at all. We can’t get a clean look at the annual growth rate because we had a payroll-tax holiday in 2011 & 2012, but if we compare to 2010, we have been running at a steady 17% rate for six months, with not even a microscopic slowdown in sight (click chart to enlarge):


Of course, if enough federal workers are furloughed for long enough, we might see the growth rate tick down. But that would not be because of a slowing economy.

Note to bloggers: you may use this chart on your blog as long as you link to my site where the chart is updated each day.